Football Ground Map
Football Ground Map
The new NFL season is upon us and UK interest in the sport has never been higher with 3 games per season now being played in London. If you're into American football, read below to check out our strategies for NFL betting.
Betting on overs and unders can be fun, but you know what's better - winning. While it's viewed as risky, NFL prop betting offers better expected value and is increasingly becoming popular for casual bettors. Besides winning, it also makes each game more exciting to follow as it focuses on individual players rather than the eventual score.
That said, you still need a calculated approach to succeed in player prop football betting. In this article, we will explore some effective tips for betting NFL player props that can help you unlock your winning potential.
One of the key appeals of NFL player props is that it can be hard for the sportsbooks to keep track of every player every minute of the day. Injuries to other players in the team can result in role changes that can affect popular overs and unders, allowing you to notch an easy win at appealing odds. On top of that, injuries can also have a direct impact on the performance of a player.
It's quite easy to find lines that are not adjusted following an injury. If a player is dealing with an injury, the chances of meeting the prop bet's requirements will decrease. This can in turn increase your chances of winning at high odds, but only if you beat the sportsbooks to the injury status.
If you want the convenience of a single reliable sportsbook, then NFL player prop betting might not be the best idea. To make a good profit at it, you need to shop for the best odds you can find. Different sportsbooks will offer different odds for the same player props. You should, therefore, compare odds across various sportsbooks and choose the one with the highest profits.
Even great quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes underperform against quality opposition. On top of player stats, you should analyze specific matchups and game situations to increase your chances of winning. Some of the factors to consider include the opposing team's defense, offensive game plans, and game flow.
For instance, if Christian McCaffrey is facing the Arizona Cardinals' defense, you might have a better chance of winning by betting on him exceeding the sportsbook's rushing yardage. But we are only using Arizona's 2022 stats in this example. This season, the new defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis, appears to have already the Cardinals looking solid at the back. So keep that in mind.
Weather conditions can play a significant role in NFL games, particularly for player props that involve passing or kicking. Wind, rain, or snow can affect a quarterback's accuracy or a kicker's range.
With NFL games now being played outside the US, it's essential to consider if the weather is favorable or unfavorable before wagering on a player prop or even a game's overs and unders. While tough weather conditions may not stop the best players out there, they will likely lead to less yardage and more punts and turnovers.
Overs still reign supreme, even when it comes to NFL player props. That's the bet most betters go for. Honestly, what's better than rooting for your favorite player? But remember, everyone, including the sportsbooks, is looking at the game logs, and the prices are adjusting because of it.
Plus, there are so many ways an over can go wrong. You bet on an over, and it rains or snows. You are also on the losing end if your player gets injured. Coach decisions can also ruin your bet. On top of that, the lines for player props also tend to be inflated by public perception and historical data. Just because a player was good last season doesn't mean he will be good this year. You should avoid blindly following stats and public sentiment when deciding on payer props.
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