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Confirmation Bias And Its Effects On Sports Betting

Confirmation bias

Betting on sports is all about predicting the outcomes of the competition and putting a wager to the result. The notion is a widespread activity in every event. Significant events such as football, baseball, hockey, basketball, and even to non-athletic events such as contests and reality shows, betting are popular.

There have been a lot of countries wherein sports betting is legally accepted. In regions where it is illegal, bettors generally produce their wagers will illegal bookmakers and on the Internet. Thus, thousands of online bookmakers receive bets on sporting activities around the globe.

Moreover, people watch sports because it gives them entertainment. But, betting is what makes most individuals want to go back to these events. Usually, before they all engage in wagering, they first gain knowledge about the competition. The venue that will host the game, the track information, who are joining teams, and how is betting done, are also essential aspects that they must know.

As humans, we tend to make decisions upon the information we gained. Individuals prefer to stick to what they believe instead of changing views based on current evidence. The same notion occurs when looking for betting teams. Present beliefs reinforce people that when provided with counterproductive proof, they tend to ignore it. This occurrence is what they call the confirmation bias.

Explication Of Confirmation Bias

One of the cognitive biases that are prevalent in the wagering industry is the confirmation bias. This idea speaks that upon gathering information about betting picks, it is usual for disorganized bettors to look for data that only supports what their original gut choice is.

According to researchers, individuals tend to prefer data that upholds their prior view, despite their accuracy. It is a prevalent habit to extend the information in a manner that confirms their expectations and omits any data that could undermine them.

Thus, this kind of practice contributes to ignoring the proofs that are contrary that their choices might be a red flag. Several so-called skilled pick providers are well-known for this kind of bias, often referring to random and insignificant trends that only support whatever their pick is.

Confirmation bias is a significant disadvantage to punters. The rise of subjectivity can shift individuals away from the most precise outcome projections. Bias also applies to monitor the achievement of your wagering. People want to think that they are doing well and remember that the victories are much stronger than the losses, although the case is not like that.

Moreover, this type of bias also exists in investing. The same as to gamblers, investors, are also prone to losses because they are going to take more action to prevent forfeiture than to make comparable profits. They sell more frequently when they are in the winning situation than when in a losing position. Thus, just as it's hard for punters to walk away when they're down but not entirely out. Most would prefer to play until they lost everything.

Being human means, we have the likelihood of having this confirmation biases from all of our experiences. We can't eradicate them as punters, but being aware of the possible impact can enhance our performance and lead to higher results.

Although confirmation bias can increase the chances of punters to make bad decisions, there are some tips on how to overcome them.

Conquering The Biases

No matter how self-conscious or disciplined we are, it is impossible to overcome confirmation bias completely. However, regulating it is possible.

Overcoming bias in sports betting and investing implies ignoring tiny sample sizes. However, providing equal importance to data that supports and doesn't aid your original feeling.

Thus, one method of doing this would be compiling a ‘blind resume' that only introduces the problematic facts of your choices. Take interventions that do not allow information such as the name of the team, or the recent outcomes for you not to get any distractions.

While trying to lessen the effect of confirmation bias, the individual can try to observe different points of perspective objectively and logically. Thus, executing a thorough analysis of every event, and basing opinions solely on facts can also help.

Trying these practices cannot assure a full percent that individual will think objectively. However, getting better at recognizing well-informed viewpoints that vary from your views will make you a wiser punter.

Fundamentally, until gamblers understand that their guts are not useful to base their decisions, they can start utilizing it for sure upon making their choices.


Some individuals believe that gambling is really about luck. However, sport is not arbitrary, and the industry is prevalent for individuals who often irrationally make wagers.

Just like any other career, you need experience, skills, and hard work to become pro in sports betting. But, all of these things take time. Acknowledging your flaws and shortcomings will assist you in becoming a smarter bettor in the future.

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