Football Ground Map
Football Ground Map
When it comes to soccer betting, most punters focus on the classic markets: match winner, totals, and both goals. However, betting on the individual performance of soccer players - kicks, assists, fouls, cards - can be even more predictable and profitable. Why? Because they depend not on the result of the whole team, but on the actions of a particular player, which makes the analysis more accurate.
Best soccer betting sites are more often focused on averages, without taking into account the shape of the player, tactical scheme of the opponent and even the style of the referee. For example, a playmaker playing against a team with high pressure is likely to make more passes than average, and an aggressive defender in a match with a principled opponent risks getting a card.
In this guide, we'll break down how to analyze punters' bets and use bookmakers' mistakes to your advantage.
Betting on individual player performances (player props) offers bettors many more opportunities than classic markets. Here you can focus on specific aspects of the game, excluding the influence of team factors. Shots, passes, cards, fouls - all this can be predicted if you understand the style of play of a particular player, his role in the team and the tactical features of the match.
When it comes to shots on goal, it is important to consider several factors at once. Firstly, the player himself: forwards and attacking midfielders take more shots, but not all of them are equally accurate. For example, Robert Lewandowski has a consistently high shot accuracy, while Darwin Nunez is known for his misses.
Secondly, the style of the team. Clubs that play attacking soccer with high possession create more chances. Manchester City generates a huge number of shots because the team dominates the pitch and their forwards get the ball in dangerous areas.
Finally, the opponent. If a team plays deep defense, the number of shots may be high, but the accuracy may be low. And if the opponent uses high pressing, the attacking player may have more space for accurate shots.
Betting on assists is one of the most underrated markets. Bookmakers often pay attention only to averages, ignoring the form of the team and the specific role of the player.
When analyzing these bets, it is important to consider:
Fouls committed is another market where bookmakers often make mistakes. The main candidates for a high foul rate are central defenders and supporting midfielders, especially if they play against teams with fast dribblers.
Worth considering:
Yellow cards and red cards are another market that can be predicted with high accuracy. There are some players that referees simply do not forgive aggressive play.
Factors to consider:
The number of passes is one of the most predictable indicators when you consider team tactics. Midfielders working in possession-based schemes make many more passes than players from teams that prefer to play long key passes.
Example: Toni Kroos and Rodri consistently make 70+ assists per game because their teams control the ball. Central midfielders who play on counter-attacking teams can be out of a job.
Betting on the individual performance of soccer players is not just a guessing game, but a process in which you can find patterns and overrated lines. Let's break down a few strategies that will help you find favorable odds.
The Expected goals (xG) metric has become a key tool in analyzing soccer statistics. It estimates the probability of a goal based on the quality of the moment, not just the number of shots. This is especially important when betting on goals and shots on goal.
If a player has a consistently high xG but is scoring little, it could indicate a temporary slump, which means that his goal odds will be inflated. For example, last season Darwin Nunez had a long slump in chances, but his xG remained high - soon the odds on his goal started to drop as he started to convert his chances.
Soccer is a team sport, and an individual player's success depends largely on how his team plays and who opposes him.
Before betting on assists or assists, it is important to consider:
Lines for individual scores are often adjusted in the last hours before a match due to changes in lineups. For example, if a team's main forward is injured, his attacking partner may receive more shots or assists and his odds will change. You can follow such changes on the Twitter accounts of insiders and team news.
Live betting on individual performance can be even more favorable than pre-match. For example, if a team plays cautiously at the beginning of the game, but then concedes a quick goal, they will be forced to attack, which means the chances of shots and passes will increase.
It's especially important to keep an eye on how the game is progressing:
Even the most experienced punters can make mistakes when betting on individual player statistics. Newcomers especially often make miscalculations that can cost money. Let's look at three key mistakes that occur most often and explain how to avoid them.
One of the most common traps is to bet on star players without paying attention to their current form. Yes, players like Lionel Messi, Kevin De Bruyne are almost always in the spotlight, but that doesn't mean they consistently perform at a high level in every match.
For example, if a forward has not scored for several games in a row and has low xG and the team is in a game crisis, his chances of scoring or hitting a lot of shots on goal are reduced. However, bookmakers often keep the odds on star players undervalued because of their reputation. Players who analyze form can find more valuable bets on less popular but currently more productive players.
Each referee has a different style: some allow hard play, others hand out cards for the slightest contact.
If the match is officiated by a referee known for his strictness (such as Mateu Laos or Michael Oliver), the chances of a large number of cards increase. And if the referee usually allows a fight (like Gianluca Rocchi in the past), the bets on fouls and cards may not pay off.
Another serious mistake is ignoring the tactical peculiarities of opposing teams. For example, if a team plays defense and keeps a low block, it will be more difficult for the forward to shoot into the goal, and the opposing team's midfielders will make fewer passes.
Betting on the individual performance of players opens up more opportunities for players to analyze and identify underrated markets. To make this type of betting profitable, it is important to work with data. To beat the best soccer betting sites on the distance is possible only through deep analysis: studying xG (expected goals), the average performance of the player, the influence of tactical schemes and the strength of opponents.
It is also important to take into account the latest news: injuries, rotations, changes in the starting lineup. A quick reaction to the news that the opponent's key playmaker will miss the match can give a head start to the bookmaker and help to find favorable odds on the replacement player.
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